How the Fall Trekking Season Became Fatal in the Himalayas
Clear heavens, calm winds and a breathtaking view of Himalayan peaks draped in snow - that is the fall experience that hikers on Mount Everest have come to love.
But this appears to be transforming.
Shifting Weather Patterns
Climate scientists indicate the rainy season now extends into fall, which is historically the mountain travel period.
During this prolonged conclusion of monsoon, they have observed at least one instance of extreme rainfall nearly every year for the past ten years, with mountain conditions becoming increasingly hazardous.
Latest Emergency on Everest
Recently, a unexpected blizzard trapped several hundred of visitors near the east-facing face of Mount Everest for multiple days in bitterly cold temperatures at an altitude of more than 16,000ft.
Almost six hundred hikers were escorted to safety by the end of Tuesday, according to reports.
One individual had died from extreme cold and mountain sickness, but the others were reportedly in stable condition.
Comparable Events Across the Region
The emergency was on the northern side but something similar had occurred on the southern side, where a South Korean mountaineer lost his life on Mera Peak.
The world learned after some delay because communication lines were disrupted by torrential rains and significant snow accumulation.
Officials estimate that mudslides and sudden floods in the country have claimed the lives of around sixty people over the past seven days.
"It is highly unusual for autumn during which we anticipate the skies to remain calm," said an experienced mountain guide.
Business Impact
Given this is the preferred period, regular extreme weather events like this have "hampered our mountaineering and mountaineering business," he continued.
The rainy period in the Indian subcontinent and Nepal usually lasts from June to early autumn, but not anymore.
"Our data demonstrates that most of the annual cycles in the past decade have had monsoons lasting until the middle of October, which is certainly a shift," said a high-ranking weather expert.
Increasing Weather Extremes
Even more concerning is the heavy rain and snow the concluding phase of the season produces, like it occurred recently on early October.
At elevation in the mountain range, such extreme weather translates to blizzards and snowstorms, which represents a significant risk for trekking, mountaineering and the travel industry.
Firsthand Experiences
Exactly what occurred last weekend when the weather shifted quite suddenly - the winds began roaring, mercury readings dropped sharply and visibility dropped drastically.
The trail that had easily led the trekkers to what was expected to be a stunning resting point was now buried in snow and impossible to traverse.
Nevertheless, one trekker, who had climbed these mountains more than a twelve times, reported he had "never encountered weather like these" before.
Expert Analysis
One major driver is the increased amount of moisture in the atmosphere because of how the world has been warming, scientists say.
This has contributed to torrential rains over a brief period of time, often after a prolonged dry spell – in contrast to in the previous era when monsoon showers were distributed evenly over four months.
A Intensified Monsoon
Climate specialists say the monsoons in South Asia at occasions seem to have become more intense because they are increasingly coming into contact with an additional atmospheric phenomenon, the westerly disturbance.
The phenomenon is a low pressure system that forms in the Mediterranean region and travels eastward - it transports chillier temperatures that causes precipitation and sometimes snow to northern India, neighboring countries and the Himalayan region.
Climate Change Impacts
Scientists have also found that in a heating planet, the increasing interaction between western weather systems and monsoons is causing another atypical result.
The hotter atmosphere is forcing the weather systems to greater altitudes, which means these weather systems are now capable to pass over the Himalayas and reach Tibet and other regions that previously experienced less so much rain in the past.
"The transformation is the reliability of patterns; we can't assume that situations will behave the same from year to year," commented an experienced mountain leader.
"This implies flexible planning, immediate choices, and experienced guidance [in the Himalayas] have become even more essential."
